Monte-Carlo simulation
The road to the final
20,000 simulated tournaments · Elo prior blended with StatsBomb xG · group stage resolved exactly (top 2 + 8 best thirds → Round of 32).
Favourite
Argentina
23.8% to lift it
Who wins it
Title race
1
Argentina
23.8%
2
Spain
21.8%
3
France
13.6%
4
Brazil
11.6%
5
England
8.3%
6
Germany
5.7%
7
Portugal
4.4%
8
Netherlands
2.8%
Group stage
Groups & advancement
Group A
advance %1Mexico
89%
2Czech Republic
66%
3Korea Republic
62%
4South Africa
56%
fixtures · W / D / L
Mexico
South Africa
Mexico
Korea Republic
Mexico
Czech Republic
South Africa
Korea Republic
South Africa
Czech Republic
Korea Republic
Czech Republic
Group B
advance %1Switzerland
84%
2Canada
79%
3Bosnia and Herzegovina
68%
4Qatar
41%
fixtures · W / D / L
Canada
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Canada
Qatar
Canada
Switzerland
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland
Qatar
Switzerland
Group C
advance %1Brazil
98%
2Morocco
78%
3Scotland
64%
4Haiti
23%
fixtures · W / D / L
Brazil
Morocco
Brazil
Haiti
Brazil
Scotland
Morocco
Haiti
Morocco
Scotland
Haiti
Scotland
Group D
advance %1USA
83%
2Turkey
78%
3Paraguay
65%
4Australia
48%
fixtures · W / D / L
USA
Paraguay
USA
Australia
USA
Turkey
Paraguay
Australia
Paraguay
Turkey
Australia
Turkey
Group E
advance %1Germany
96%
2Ecuador
77%
3Cote d'Ivoire
72%
4Curacao
24%
fixtures · W / D / L
Germany
Curacao
Germany
Cote d'Ivoire
Germany
Ecuador
Curacao
Cote d'Ivoire
Curacao
Ecuador
Cote d'Ivoire
Ecuador
Group F
advance %1Netherlands
90%
2Japan
71%
3Sweden
59%
4Tunisia
52%
fixtures · W / D / L
Netherlands
Japan
Netherlands
Sweden
Netherlands
Tunisia
Japan
Sweden
Japan
Tunisia
Sweden
Tunisia
Group G
advance %1Belgium
92%
2IR Iran
74%
3Egypt
72%
4New Zealand
33%
fixtures · W / D / L
Belgium
Egypt
Belgium
IR Iran
Belgium
New Zealand
Egypt
IR Iran
Egypt
New Zealand
IR Iran
New Zealand
Group H
advance %1Spain
99%
2Uruguay
83%
3Cape Verde
39%
4Saudi Arabia
33%
fixtures · W / D / L
Spain
Cape Verde
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde
Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
Group I
advance %1France
98%
2Senegal
71%
3Norway
68%
4Iraq
28%
fixtures · W / D / L
France
Senegal
France
Iraq
France
Norway
Senegal
Iraq
Senegal
Norway
Iraq
Norway
Group J
advance %1Argentina
99%
2Algeria
66%
3Austria
64%
4Jordan
29%
fixtures · W / D / L
Argentina
Algeria
Argentina
Austria
Argentina
Jordan
Algeria
Austria
Algeria
Jordan
Austria
Jordan
Group K
advance %1Portugal
94%
2Colombia
78%
3DR Congo
61%
4Uzbekistan
36%
fixtures · W / D / L
Portugal
DR Congo
Portugal
Uzbekistan
Portugal
Colombia
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
DR Congo
Colombia
Uzbekistan
Colombia
Group L
advance %1England
97%
2Croatia
69%
3Ghana
58%
4Panama
39%
fixtures · W / D / L
England
Croatia
England
Ghana
England
Panama
Croatia
Ghana
Croatia
Panama
Ghana
Panama
Survival odds
Path to the final
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 99% | 79% | 59% | 52% | 37% | 23.8% |
| Spain | 99% | 80% | 62% | 53% | 36% | 21.8% |
| France | 98% | 74% | 53% | 43% | 25% | 13.6% |
| Brazil | 98% | 72% | 51% | 39% | 21% | 11.6% |
| England | 97% | 74% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 8.3% |
| Germany | 96% | 67% | 36% | 25% | 12% | 5.7% |
| Portugal | 94% | 63% | 34% | 22% | 10% | 4.4% |
| Netherlands | 90% | 57% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 2.8% |
| Belgium | 92% | 63% | 42% | 17% | 6% | 2.0% |
| Uruguay | 83% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0.7% |
| Switzerland | 84% | 52% | 30% | 8% | 3% | 0.7% |
| Mexico | 89% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 0.6% |