Monte-Carlo simulation
The road to the final
20,000 simulated tournaments · Elo blended with StatsBomb xG, then updated by every real result · group stage resolved exactly (top 2 + 8 best thirds → Round of 32).
12 matches played — odds below reflect them
Favourite
Argentina
26.2% to lift it
Results in the modellive centre →
ESP1-0ARG
FRA4-6ENG
ENG1-2ARG
FRA0-2ESP
ARG3-1SUI
NOR1-2ENG
ESP2-1BEL
FRA2-0MAR
SUI4-3COL
ARG3-2EGY
USA1-4BEL
POR0-1ESP
Who wins it
Title race
1
Argentina
26.2%
2
Spain
19.2%
3
France
15.2%
4
Brazil
10.1%
5
England
8.7%
6
Germany
5.9%
7
Portugal
4.1%
8
Netherlands
2.4%
Group stage
Groups & advancement
Group A
advance %1Mexico
91%
2Korea Republic
66%
3Czech Republic
61%
4South Africa
53%
fixtures · W / D / L
Mexico
South Africa
Mexico
Korea Republic
Mexico
Czech Republic
South Africa
Korea Republic
South Africa
Czech Republic
Korea Republic
Czech Republic
Group B
advance %1Switzerland
82%
2Canada
78%
3Bosnia and Herzegovina
69%
4Qatar
44%
fixtures · W / D / L
Canada
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Canada
Qatar
Canada
Switzerland
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland
Qatar
Switzerland
Group C
advance %1Brazil
98%
2Morocco
80%
3Scotland
66%
4Haiti
20%
fixtures · W / D / L
Brazil
Morocco
Brazil
Haiti
Brazil
Scotland
Morocco
Haiti
Morocco
Scotland
Haiti
Scotland
Group D
advance %1USA
86%
2Turkey
70%
3Paraguay
59%
4Australia
58%
fixtures · W / D / L
USA
Paraguay
USA
Australia
USA
Turkey
Paraguay
Australia
Paraguay
Turkey
Australia
Turkey
Group E
advance %1Germany
96%
2Cote d'Ivoire
76%
3Ecuador
73%
4Curacao
23%
fixtures · W / D / L
Germany
Curacao
Germany
Cote d'Ivoire
Germany
Ecuador
Curacao
Cote d'Ivoire
Curacao
Ecuador
Cote d'Ivoire
Ecuador
Group F
advance %1Netherlands
89%
2Japan
72%
3Sweden
67%
4Tunisia
43%
fixtures · W / D / L
Netherlands
Japan
Netherlands
Sweden
Netherlands
Tunisia
Japan
Sweden
Japan
Tunisia
Sweden
Tunisia
Group G
advance %1Belgium
91%
2Egypt
73%
3IR Iran
72%
4New Zealand
34%
fixtures · W / D / L
Belgium
Egypt
Belgium
IR Iran
Belgium
New Zealand
Egypt
IR Iran
Egypt
New Zealand
IR Iran
New Zealand
Group H
advance %1Spain
99%
2Uruguay
81%
3Cape Verde
43%
4Saudi Arabia
35%
fixtures · W / D / L
Spain
Cape Verde
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Uruguay
Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde
Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
Group I
advance %1France
98%
2Norway
72%
3Senegal
69%
4Iraq
24%
fixtures · W / D / L
France
Senegal
France
Iraq
France
Norway
Senegal
Iraq
Senegal
Norway
Iraq
Norway
Group J
advance %1Argentina
99%
2Austria
68%
3Algeria
64%
4Jordan
25%
fixtures · W / D / L
Argentina
Algeria
Argentina
Austria
Argentina
Jordan
Algeria
Austria
Algeria
Jordan
Austria
Jordan
Group K
advance %1Portugal
93%
2Colombia
78%
3DR Congo
63%
4Uzbekistan
36%
fixtures · W / D / L
Portugal
DR Congo
Portugal
Uzbekistan
Portugal
Colombia
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
DR Congo
Colombia
Uzbekistan
Colombia
Group L
advance %1England
97%
2Croatia
70%
3Ghana
58%
4Panama
39%
fixtures · W / D / L
England
Croatia
England
Ghana
England
Panama
Croatia
Ghana
Croatia
Panama
Ghana
Panama
Survival odds
Path to the final
| Team | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 99% | 82% | 61% | 54% | 39% | 26.2% |
| Spain | 99% | 77% | 59% | 49% | 33% | 19.2% |
| France | 98% | 75% | 54% | 44% | 26% | 15.2% |
| Brazil | 98% | 69% | 48% | 37% | 19% | 10.1% |
| England | 97% | 74% | 36% | 28% | 17% | 8.7% |
| Germany | 96% | 68% | 37% | 25% | 13% | 5.9% |
| Portugal | 93% | 61% | 32% | 21% | 9% | 4.1% |
| Netherlands | 89% | 56% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2.4% |
| Belgium | 91% | 61% | 40% | 16% | 6% | 1.7% |
| Mexico | 91% | 53% | 32% | 10% | 3% | 0.9% |
| Switzerland | 82% | 50% | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0.6% |
| Uruguay | 81% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0.6% |